12
Feb '10

Hurray! We are out of Recession

We are out of recession and it’s official.

The UK economy grew by 0.1% in the quarter to December 2009 and the IMF has revised its forecast for the coming year upwards from 0.9% to 1.3%. In fact they now agree with Alistair Darling who for a little while now has been sticking with a 1.25% growth forecast for 2010 to give him a little bit of credit.

So it’s a cautious but none the less positive start to the New Year.

Unemployment

Further to our bulletin before Christmas we have it confirmed that unemployment is down and underpins the revised forecast that the number will not reach the heady heights of 3m that had been mooted in the earlier part of 2009. The number of unemployed people fell by 7,000 over the quarter falling to 2.46m and is the first quarterly fall in the number of unemployed people since the three months to May 2008.

The number of people claiming Jobseekers allowance in December 2009 fell by 15,200 and is the second consecutive monthly fall in the claimant count. It is also the largest monthly fall since April 2007. The number of vacancies in the three months
to December 2009 was 448,000, up 16,000 compared with the previous quarter, more good news.

British business leaders are the most confident in Europe about employment prospects, with more than half predicting economic recovery will materialise this year, according to the 13th annual Global CEO survey from PricewaterhouseCoopers.
Chief executives expect the recovery to continue with 42% planning to increase headcount in the next year and 46% very confident about business, compared with 29% in 2009.

All this is good news and it is good to see that others now agree with our ‘Reasons to be Cheerful’ release before Christmas.

World Economy

The IMF agrees with us as well.

It has raised its projection for how much the world economy will grow in 2010 and it is now predicting the world economy will grow by 3.9% next year up from its forecast of 3.1% in October.

China leads the way with a revised figure of 10% forecast for 2010 though the USA, still the world’s largest economy, is in line for a 2.7% increase as well which will not only be good news for the western world but may also help out the Obama
administration.

Talking about the biggest economy, Japan who has been the second biggest economy for a long time now, with a GDP of $4.6 trillion, is about to be eclipsed by China’s phenomenal growth pushing it into third place. Ironically Japan’s exports
grew for the first time in fifteen months in December, boosted by demand in Asia and China. Its exports hit 5.4 trillion yen in December up a massive 12.1% on the same time last year with shipments to Asia rising by almost a third. The Japanese
finance ministry said that China has now overtaken the US as Japans largest overseas market.

We have been forecasting for some time here at Burden Dare that China is the one to watch and this year it will become number two in an increasingly compacted world, watch out US your crown is about to topple next.

If you agree with us and are up for the challenge and want more information on how we at Burden Dare can put experience to work for you why not contact us.

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